2024 Oscars Ratings Results
The votes are in. It's time to reveal the predictions
We’ve made it to the big weekend! This year we had 8062 total votes and I want to thank each and every person who contributed. It’s the first year that I didn’t bother spamming my Twitter (RIP) feed with links, so I wasn’t sure how that would turn out.
Before we get to the results, I want to spend a little time explaining the different criteria that go into determining the final score for each category.
Rating
This is the result that is returned by my algorithm that I use for all of my ratings. If all things were equal in the world, this would indicate the best nominee for each category.
Win %
If you voted (thank you again for your support), then you are well that the process uses head-to-head matchups. This is simply the amount of matchups a nominee won, divided by how many matchups they were featured in.
Game Ratio
This is critical to keeping the ratings system honest. Game ratio is the proportion of matchups the nominee was featured in vs its competition. Simply put, a lower game ratio means voters did not watch the movie. A higher game ratio can push even a lower rated nominee into a front runner.
Score
This is the final, weighted result based off of the above criteria. The higher the score, the higher probability I personally give for a nominee to win.
Alright. Now that we have all the important definitions out of the way, lets take a look at the predictions.
Best Supporting Actress
Winner: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
This is a pretty decisive victory for Da’Vine Joy Randolph. With the highest win percentage and rating score, combined with a competitive game ratio, she runs away with it.
Best Supporting Actor
Winner: Robert Downey Jr.
Robert Downey Jr. leads in every column here, but none of them are so decisive that this is a runaway victory. This seems to be a 4-man race with Downey a comfortable, but not certain favorite.
Best Actress
Winner: Emma Stone
A very tight 3 woman race here! Emma stone has the highest pure rating and win percentage, but fewer voters saw Poor Things than Anatomy of a Fall or Killers of the Flower Moon. If that trend holds true with the Oscars voters, either Hüller or Gladstone could easily snag an upset victory here.
Best Actor
Winner: Cillian Murphy
Murphy is in the lead, but don’t count out Paul Giamatti here. His win percentage is only slightly lower than the favorite.
Best Director
Winner: Christopher Nolan
Nolan is definitely the favorite here, having been the only nominee that has a win percentage over 50%, although his weighted score is not the most comfortable lead.
Best Picture
Winner: Oppenheimer
A big potential night for Oppenheimer! After snagging both male acting categories + a director nod for Nolan, the top prize of the evening also seems to be Oppy’s for the taking. An upset would not shock me, however, as films 2-7 all have positive win percentages. I’d keep one eye out on Poor Things, currently sitting at 3. With the second best win percentage and pure rating score, a lot could hinge on how many voters in the academy got around to actually watching it.
And there you have it. Those are the offical predictions for the 2024 Oscars. I’ll be back for a quick post-mortem after the awards to go over how well we did.