Oscars Check-in - Predicting Best Director

We are less than a week away from The Oscars! So far, we’ve previewed all 4 of the Acting categories - and, as of this writing, those predictions have remained steady since my previous post. As a quick recap, the current Top-2 for each category are:

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Kieran Culkin

2. Guy Pearce

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Ariana Grande

2. Felicity Jones

Best Actor:

1. Adrien Brody

2. Ralph Fiennes

Best Actress:

1. Mikey Madison

2. Demi Moore

I think there’s a chance that some late-arriving voters can swing one or two of these races, which, if you haven’t already - please take a few minutes and vote!

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Now, predicting Best Director:

This is a very interesting set of results - especially since I’ve had the privilege of monitoring the state of the Best Picture voting so far. The voter pool for these ratings skews a bit more towards The Substance than the other films, which is reflected in the Game Ratio parameter, and greatly affects the weighting of the overall score. To emphasize the point, as well as providing a bit of a preview of Best Picture, here is some Best Picture Game Ratio data:

1. Conclave

2. The Substance - Coralie Fargeat

3. Dune: Part Two

4. Anora - Sean Baker

5. Wicked

6. Emilia Pérez - Jacques Audiard

7. A Complete Unknown - James Mangold

8. The Brutalist - Brady Corbet

9. Nickel Boys

10. I’m Still Here

I want to make it clear - this is the order of the Game Ratio statistic, not a current prediction for Best Picture, but a film with enough of an edge with eyeballs can make up for some less than stellar reviews in this system.

Now, focusing back on Best Director. This so far has been considered a two-man race:

DraftKings:

1. Sean Baker, Anora -165

2. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist +125

3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez +2000

4. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance +2500

5. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown +2500

Gold Derby:

1. Sean Baker, Anora (9/5)

2. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (31/10)

3. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (6/1)

4. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (13/2)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (15/2)

Numlock Awards (as of Feb 17):

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (187.8)

2. Sean Baker, Anora (174.2)

3. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (64.4)

4. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (36.9)

5. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (27.5)

I do want to note that this model has not missed on this category since 2017 - and even in that particular instance, Damien Chazelle had the much lower rating than Barry Jenkins, but led in the Game Ratio score. That’s all to say, if I knew absolutely nothing about the state of the race thus far, I would be extremely confident in Coralie Fargeat taking home an Oscar.

Could something crazy happen? Could The Academy skew differently enough that a major upset takes place and Coralie Fargeat hears her name called? Perhaps. In a world where that happens, I would suspect Demi Moore would also be taking home the award for Best Actress. Another possibility could be that the algorithm is outsmarting itself here. Brady Corbet has a substantial lead in the actual ratings values and it could be that easy of an answer.

Next up, we will shift the focus onto Best Picture.