Oscars Check-in - Predicting the Supporting Roles
lets take a look at the current state of the race for actor and actress in a supporting role - and see what's changed in the other races.
We’re getting closer to the awards being handed out and my one category per week reveal cadence isn’t going to cut it, so today I’m going to talk through the current state of the race for both Supporting categories. But before we do that, a reminder to please participate in the voting if you have not already. Even if you have seen or only plan to see a couple of the nominated movies this year, your feedback is valid (do you really think everyone in the Academy watches each and every one of these?).
Let’s start with Best Supporting Actress:
This would be a big upset. It’s not like the Ariana Grande love here is super flukey - Draft Kings, Gold Derby, and Numlock Awards all have her firmly in second place for the award - but Zoe Saldaña has just won every award of consequence up to this point and is the consensus #1 choice going into March 2nd. This would be a fun one to get right.
Now on to Best Supporting Actor:
What we have at the moment is basically a tie between Guy Pearce and Kieran Culkin. A couple more people voting on this and the top two spots could be swapped by tomorrow. Culkin, similar to Saldaña, has so far swept his way through awards season and is the consensus odds-on favorite. After that, its really a 4-way even race for second.
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain 8/5
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist 9/2
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown 9/2
Yura Borisov, Anora 6/1
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice 8/1
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain -2000
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown +900
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist +1600
Yura Borisov, Anora +1800
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice +2000
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (264.2)
Yura Borisov, Anora (80.5)
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (71.5)
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (58.7)
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (54.9)
If Grande winning would be a big upset, then a win for Pearce, who is currently in 2nd (tie), 3rd, or 5th, depending on the site you’re looking at, would be enormous. As much as I’d like to brag about having a model that picked that correctly, it’d be a whole lot easier if Culkin just beats him a couple more times in some head-to-head matchups over the next few days.
Finally, a quick look at the other two categories that have already been covered.
Best Actor (original write-up here):
Some slight movement. Chalamet and Stan swapped spots near the bottom, while Adrien Brody’s lead has grown
Best Actress (original write-up here):
We have a lead change! Mikey Madison has now lept ahead of Demi Moore for the favorite in this category. The margin is still razor thin, but all of Mikey’s numbers have improved across the board. I’ll be keeping my eyes glued to this race.